Correlation Does Not Mean Causation – A Lesson I Took from a 100-Minute TV Debate

The television debate showed me a previously known example that demonstrated ice cream purchases went up while more people died from drowning accidents. Initially, I found this information uninteresting. However, the situation presented itself as a regular event that most people chose to ignore. Two graphs show identical upward trends. One graph shows an upward trend which the other graph follows. I move forward with my life after I see these two patterns which match perfectly.

The conversation reached its end point. Someone pointed out heat as a third factor. People tend to buy ice cream when temperatures reach high levels, and they also swim in water during these warm days. The numbers continued to move together, but they failed to establish a relationship between each other. Instead, they showed signs of reaction due to an external influence. When I first heard this information, I found it unimportant, but it stayed in my mind for longer than I expected.

The situation made me observe similar patterns in different places, including news headlines and basic charts and explanations that seemed too perfect. As a statistics student, I, along with my peers, have placed faith in organized data results at various points during our studies. The situation eventually reached a point of standstill, which stopped all forward movement. I no longer rush to explain what one thing is doing to another.

The show failed to provide me with a specific method that I could study for later application. The experience, however, made me move at a slower pace. Now, when I witness two objects moving together, I stop to observe, wanting to prevent myself from making hasty conclusions about their relationship.